We took a short position (PMI LEAPs) in February, 2007, when the stock was trading around $47. A bit too early then, but the company is still expensive now and insider sales are very high. The real estate carnage is only gaining steam, and if you look at historical payout ratios for PMI, this stock has a ways [...]
Archive for July, 2007
Sell: PMI Group, Inc.
Posted in Real Estate, U.S. on July 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Surge
Posted in Foreclosure, Herd Mentality, Real Estate, U.S. on July 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
July 30, 2007 — LOS ANGELES (AP) — The number of U.S. homes facing foreclosure surged 58 percent in the first six months of the year, the latest sign of mounting problems in the mortgage industry, a data firm said Monday.
In all, 573,397 properties across the nation reported some sort of foreclosure activity in the [...]
Chinese Lost $0.54 Billion in One Month on Blackstone Investment
Posted in China, Herd Mentality, Liquidity, Private Equity/LBO on July 30, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
Blackstone share slump costs China $540 million
But investment in Blackstone wasn’t just about returns, analysts say
July 30, 2007 — HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Blackstone Group L.P.’s slumping share price isn’t likely what Beijing had in mind when it pumped $3 billion into the leveraged buyout firm last month.
Since its June debut Blackstone has tumbled 21%, [...]
Strong Buy: Long-term Natural Gas
Posted in Australia, Energy, Natural Gas on July 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
Woodside in $12b Gas Project
July 28, 2007 – (Sydney Morning Herald) – WOODSIDE Petroleum has committed itself to building one of the most expensive developments in the history of the Australian resources sector after its board gave the go-ahead for its $12 billion Pluto liquefied natural gas project on Friday.
The final capital cost figure – [...]
Mortgage Delinquencies Seen Peaking in 2008
Posted in Herd Mentality, Liquidity, Real Estate on July 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
Who writes this kind of stuff? Just six months ago, similar “economists” had predicted a housing bottom that would end in 2007. While it would seem that we are just starting to see the real effects of this crack-up liquidity boom, who knows when it will bottom? These types of ”economists” should be shot.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The credit quality of [...]
Oil Majors See Decline in Production
Posted in Energy on July 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
Even at top, Exxon Mobil feels earnings pinch
No. 1 oil company sees profit, production fall; Shell earnings rise despite drop in output
July 26 (Houston Chronicle) – Even the oil industry’s mightiest can be humbled in a world with diminishing access to oil and ever-increasing costs of getting it.
Investors roughed up Exxon Mobil Corp. on Thursday when [...]
“People will not want to hear of financial markets or real estate.”
Posted in Herd Mentality, Liquidity, Real Estate on July 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
“This is not going to be a short affair,” said V. Anantha-Nageswaran, head of research for Asia and the Middle East at Bank Julius Baer (Singapore) Ltd. “By the time it ends, in three to four years, people will not want to hear of financial markets or real estate.”
Full article at Bloomberg…
The Start of the Liquidity Crunch?
Posted in Herd Mentality, Interest Rates, Liquidity on July 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment »
This chart is courtesy of Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, and a few other talented securitization groups. Mind you, all of the constituent loans in the chart below were originated in 2006. Fortunately and most notably, most buyers of this high yield debt used ample amounts of leverage.
Average Plane Ticket Prices Fall in 1Q
Posted in Recession on July 27, 2007 | 1 Comment »
This is not a good sign for the airline sector. Flat ticket prices amidst rising fuel, maintenance, and labor costs. So I was early in buying a small position of put LEAPs on Southwest (LUV), but could be an interesting position to add to given the slowdown in the US.
Average Air Fares [...]
