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Archive for the ‘Currencies’ Category

Now that all asset classes including:

property
equities, mutual funds
bonds
cash/currencies/money market funds
commodities

have gotten hammered, and the US dollar has rallied due to mass redemptions of foreign investments, an optimal position is in physical gold and silver. The paper market of gold is 2.5 times the size of the physical market, and with the IMF and others selling [...]

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This deleveraging process has been a very unique one. Over the last decade, the Fed led many central banks around the world in an unprecedented expansion of money supply. While there is massive credit being withdrawn from the global system, the long-term effects of this money supply expansion has yet to filter through. Investors are [...]

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February 11, 2008 (Rob Roy) – Over the past several years my firm has highlighted the risks in the sub-prime sector, the lax lending standards, and the housing bubble that peaked in 2005. The residual effects of these have been vast and continue to support our view that the unraveling of the debt issue is [...]

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This is our “Market Predictions” post from January 17, 2007.  Other than declining interest rates (what is Bernanke thinking!), we were spot on with:

Gold
Silver
Falling US dollar
Oil
Natural gas
Agricultural commodities

The only other sectors we should have added to this list are (i) desalinated water and  (ii) clean and “cleaner” energy (such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass).  [...]

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November 25, 2007 (Lawrence Summers) – Three months ago it was reasonable to expect that the subprime credit crisis would be a financially significant event but not one that would threaten the overall pattern of economic growth. This is still a possible outcome but no longer the preponderant probability.Even if necessary changes in policy are [...]

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We are still significantly overweight in gold stocks, in particular GLD.  While it is difficult to guess what the Fed will do on September 18th, in either a largely deflationary or inflationary environment gold performs well.  Given that the dollar has broken through the psychological 80 level and global central banks continue to print money [...]

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September 6, 2007 (Bloomberg) A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable.
Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have cut their stash of [...]

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“Fed May Avoid Emergency Interest Rate Cut on Signs Liquidity Crisis Easing,” is the latest headline on Bloomberg this morning.
It is getting very tiring to read such inept coverage of this melt-down. I would recommend that these two reporters take a drive through the San Joaquin Valley (California) or central Ohio and then tell [...]

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Make sure you are buying bullion and not gold mining stocks.  Unlike the last run up in gold, this one will be in bullion.
“I’m expecting an explosive move for gold any day now.”
– Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Gold is going nowhere.
Dollar-priced bullion, a traditional haven for investors in times of [...]

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This is a great article from the New York Times which points out:

lowering interest rates will not help if they won’t let you borrow in the first place
lower housing prices will lead to a wave of defaults (there are 2,500+ CMBS pools)
the continued “run” on the banks is impossible to fix given that banks have [...]

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