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Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

The banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery.  – Robert Reich

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Michael Perry [CEO of IndyMac] called the markets for mortgage securities “panicked and illiquid” in a letter to employees Thursday.
He said the lender has “very strong liquidity, a good amount of excess capital,” and added that “there are no realistic scenarios that I can foresee that would impair IndyMac’s viability.”
He goes on to say that [...]

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I think that this will collapse the bond market regardless of whether they actually put it on the books. The implied guarantee is too well understood by the financial community. The government can always change its obligations on SS and Medicare. Those are not contractual.  They are legislative, and more importantly, they are not owed [...]

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This deleveraging process has been a very unique one. Over the last decade, the Fed led many central banks around the world in an unprecedented expansion of money supply. While there is massive credit being withdrawn from the global system, the long-term effects of this money supply expansion has yet to filter through. Investors are [...]

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In January of 2007, we made macro predictions about how to allocate assets for the coming 5 years in “Our Investment Calls for 2012.” Overall, our recommendations were pretty spot on as you can see from the table below.
One glaring area though where we were totally off is with interest rates. Boy, were [...]

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March 3, 2008 (Motley Fool) – Right now, things look bad. Every day, the economic news looks worse. Unemployment has been creeping up. The service sector is shrinking for the first time in half a decade. Consumer confidence is declining.
The stock market’s performance of late reflects this news. The S&P 500 is down nearly 9% [...]

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February 11, 2008 (Rob Roy) – Over the past several years my firm has highlighted the risks in the sub-prime sector, the lax lending standards, and the housing bubble that peaked in 2005. The residual effects of these have been vast and continue to support our view that the unraveling of the debt issue is [...]

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What amazes me is that investors are still bullish at the slightest bit of good news. Yet, they ignore the growing and very serious macro risks facing the global markets. The report on new home sales released today was an absolute disaster, yet the Dow was up 1.5% on rate cut hopes. [...]

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Won’t be long before the monoliners are nationalized. This is a great article from The Times (January 25, 2008). Some classic highlights:
America’s biggest mortgage bond insurers collectively need a $200 billion (£101 billion) capital injection if they are to maintain their key AAA credit ratings, a figure that dwarfs a plan by New York regulators [...]

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