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Archive for the ‘Gold’ Category

Now that all asset classes including:

property
equities, mutual funds
bonds
cash/currencies/money market funds
commodities

have gotten hammered, and the US dollar has rallied due to mass redemptions of foreign investments, an optimal position is in physical gold and silver. The paper market of gold is 2.5 times the size of the physical market, and with the IMF and others selling [...]

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This deleveraging process has been a very unique one. Over the last decade, the Fed led many central banks around the world in an unprecedented expansion of money supply. While there is massive credit being withdrawn from the global system, the long-term effects of this money supply expansion has yet to filter through. Investors are [...]

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In January of 2007, we made macro predictions about how to allocate assets for the coming 5 years in “Our Investment Calls for 2012.” Overall, our recommendations were pretty spot on as you can see from the table below.
One glaring area though where we were totally off is with interest rates. Boy, were [...]

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What amazes me is that investors are still bullish at the slightest bit of good news. Yet, they ignore the growing and very serious macro risks facing the global markets. The report on new home sales released today was an absolute disaster, yet the Dow was up 1.5% on rate cut hopes. [...]

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This is our “Market Predictions” post from January 17, 2007.  Other than declining interest rates (what is Bernanke thinking!), we were spot on with:

Gold
Silver
Falling US dollar
Oil
Natural gas
Agricultural commodities

The only other sectors we should have added to this list are (i) desalinated water and  (ii) clean and “cleaner” energy (such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass).  [...]

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We are still significantly overweight in gold stocks, in particular GLD.  While it is difficult to guess what the Fed will do on September 18th, in either a largely deflationary or inflationary environment gold performs well.  Given that the dollar has broken through the psychological 80 level and global central banks continue to print money [...]

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September 6, 2007 (Bloomberg) A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable.
Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have cut their stash of [...]

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Make sure you are buying bullion and not gold mining stocks.  Unlike the last run up in gold, this one will be in bullion.
“I’m expecting an explosive move for gold any day now.”
– Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Gold is going nowhere.
Dollar-priced bullion, a traditional haven for investors in times of [...]

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