Late last year, the largest retail mall owners, Simon Property Group and GGP invested alongside Authentic Brands Group to buy out the assets of troubled teen retailer, Aéropostale. As part of the restructuring, Aeropostale cut the number of stores to 240 from 800, and Simon believes that this is a good investment that can double the number of stores to 500 locations. While this is a good move by Authentic Brands to bring in the two largest retail mall landlords, it is a questionable use of capital given the retail implosion happening to traditional retailers. Some speculate that Simon and GGP invested to maintain their occupancy levels which seems more likely given that maintaining face with the equity market is much more important than any IRR on a relatively small investment for these large owners. It will be interesting to see how the traditional retail mall implosion plays out. Since the announcement of this investment in October, both Simon and GGP stocks are down ~15% and down approximately 40% since their recent highs in July.
have gotten hammered, and the US dollar has rallied due to mass redemptions of foreign investments, an optimal position is in physical gold and silver. The paper market of gold is 2.5 times the size of the physical market, and with the IMF and others selling off positions gold is getting hammered. This should only be for the short term, and the current US$745/ounce won’t last for too long. As the US dollar and Euro get hammered in the medium term, precious metals will very likely shine.
Out of almost 2,100 diversified retail U.S. stock mutual funds that are open to new investors, just 17 have positive returns for both the past 12 months and year-to-date, according to investment researcher Morningstar, Inc.
Michael Perry [CEO of IndyMac] called the markets for mortgage securities “panicked and illiquid” in a letter to employees Thursday.
He said the lender has “very strong liquidity, a good amount of excess capital,” and added that “there are no realistic scenarios that I can foresee that would impair IndyMac’s viability.”
He goes on to say that IndyMac, a large Alt-A lender, will continue to “widen its pricing and tighten product and underwriting guidelines to ensure that a much greater percentage of our production qualifies for sale.”
Quote above from August 2, 2007, TheStreet.com (IndyMac stock closed at $21.05 on August 2, 2007).
Update on July 14, 2008: IndyMac was shut down by federal regulators over the weekend.
I think that this will collapse the bond market regardless of whether they actually put it on the books. The implied guarantee is too well understood by the financial community. The government can always change its obligations on SS and Medicare. Those are not contractual. They are legislative, and more importantly, they are not owed to Wall Street, its friends, and even more, to foreign central banks. FCBs hold 60% of the debt of Fannie and Freddie. Wall Street expects the government to stand behind Fannie and Freddie, and it is beginning to believe, rightly I think, that this will break the finances of the US government. In fact they are already broken, and the point of recognition is here and now. I look for interest rates on US government securities to be much higher a year from now, perhaps unimaginably so.